URL: http://www.foodrisk.org/resource_types/tools/modeling_simulation.cfm

Statistical Modeling and Simulation Tools

Format	Author(s)	Title / Description	Date added	Details
	Michel, P; Wilson, JB; Wayne Martin, S; Clarke, RC; McEwen, SA; Gyles, CL	Estimation of the Under-Reporting Rate for the Surveillance of Escherichia coli O157:H7 Cases in Ontario, Canada This study provides an estimate of the under-reporting rate for E. coli 0157:H7 infection under the surveillance system in place for the Province of Ontario, Canada. Values for the correcting factors were obtained using simulation models which considered a probability distribution for each coefficient in the models and allowed the calculation of standard errors associated with the under-reporting estimates. In addition to a sequential model, a novel method, based on hospitalization rates, was used to validate the magnitude of the under-reporting estimate. (more) Publication Date: Thursday, February 3, 2000	Jan 23, 2009
	Schaffner, DW	Predictive food microbiology Gedanken experiment: why do microbial growth data require a transformation? This report develops an artificial microbial growth curve for use in 'gedanken' experiments, implying a transformation in conventional data development. The report also proposes that food microbiologists consider microbial growth data to be log-normally distributed. (more) Publication Month: April 1998	Jan 23, 2009
	Malorny, B; Löfström, C; Wagner, M; Krämer, N; Hoorfar, J	Enumeration of Salmonella Bacteria in Food and Feed Samples by Real-Time PCR for Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment This report discusses MPN and PCR quantitation methods for enumeration of Salmonella bacteria in foods, and provides a comprehensive comparison of the two. (more) Publication Month: March 2008	Jan 22, 2009
	Peleg, M	Evaluation of the Fermi equation as a model of dose-response curves This report describes using the Fermi function to illustrate the dose-response curve of a population of an organism. Publication Month: October 1996	Jan 22, 2009
	Peleg, M; Normand, MD; Damrau, E	Mathematical interpretation of dose-response curves This report attempts to interpret dose-response curves using mathematical models, including the Fermi function and the Weibull distribution function. The report proposes that these interpretations can be used to determine underlying distributions in dose-response relationships. (more) Publication Date: Monday, February 24, 1997	Jan 22, 2009
	Palisade	@RISK 5.0 Tutorial This series of short video tutorials provide a brief introduction to @RISK 5.0. The tutorials include Setting up Your Model, Running the Simulation, Analyzing the Simulation Results, and Advanced Features. Included here are more videos detailing the new features found in @RISK 5.0. (more) Publication Year: 2009	Jan 21, 2009
	Schaffner, DW	Mathematical Frameworks for Modeling Listeria Cross-contamination in Food-processing Plants This study uses Monte Carlo simulation techniques to quantitatively describe the cross-contamination of Listeria monocytogenes. Two models are presented. The first model describes the number and prevalence for four different strains while the second model describes the number and prevalence for only one strain. The purpose of these models is to provide a mathematical framework for future predictive models with the ultimate goal of understanding and controlling L. monocytogenes in food-processing plants. (more) Publication Date: Friday, July 9, 2004	Jan 15, 2009
	Ivanek, R; Grohn, YT; Wiedmann, M; Wells, MT	Mathematical Model of Listeria monocytogenes Cross-Contamination in a Fish Processing Plant This report details a mathematical simulation model describing cross contamination pathways for L. monocytogenes. A smoked fish processing plant was used for the model. The report concludes that 10.7% of foods in a lot are contaminated, and that the most significant contributors to contamination were the frequency in which employees' gloves touched food and food surfaces, and the frequency of changing gloves. Access to the full report requires purchase. (more) Publication Month: December 2004	Jan 15, 2009
	Hamrick, Karen	Eating and Health Module (ATUS) This Module (EH Module) of the American Time Use Survey (ATUS) includes statistics on time spent in eating and drinking activities, grocery shopping, and meal preparation for the population age 15 and older and for participants in the Food Stamp Program. Many related resources are also provided on the same page. (more) Publication Date: Wednesday, May 21, 2008	May 30, 2008
	Hamrick, Karen	Eating and Health Module User’s Guide This User’s Guide provides detailed guidance to researchers on how to use the EH Module to measure time use and eating patterns. (more) Publication Date: Wednesday, May 21, 2008	May 28, 2008
	The LifeLine Group	LifeLine™ v4.3 LifeLine Aggregate and Cumulative Exposure / Risk Assessment Software™ Version 4.3, a software "tool to characterize population-based aggregate and cumulative exposures and risks from pesticide residues in food and tapwater as well as in the home following residential uses". (more)	Apr 26, 2006
	Scientific Panel on Plant Health, Plant Protection Products and Their Residues, European Food Safety Authority	Opinion of the PPR Panel Related to the Default Q10 Value Used to Describe the Temperature Effect on Transformation Rates of Pesticides in Soil (Question No EFSA-Q-2005-058) Opinion adopted on February 8, 2006 with recommendations for use of the Q10 approach currently used in the EU to measure the rate of pesticide degradation in the soil. (more) Deadline: Wednesday, March 15, 2006 Publication Date: Wednesday, March 15, 2006	Mar 15, 2006
	Lumenaut Ltd.	Excel Risk Add-In Monte Carlo risk, decision tree and statistical add-in software for Excel.	Jul 4, 2005
	BT Safety LLC	BT Safety LLC: Building Technologies for Safety Company that builds software systems and predictive modeling tools to facilitate rapid and effective response to food security and food safety threats. Products include the Food Source Identification and Tracking System (FSITS) model which can be used to simulate the effects of a food contamination event and the Food Event Manager (FEM) model which can be used to support government officials in responding to an actual foodborne outbreak. (more)	May 19, 2005
	Varela, José Ricardo	Simulación 4.0 Montecarlo simulation tool that was fully developed in VBA (Visual Basic for Applications) and is compatible with Excel 97 and above. Features include 34 random number functions, simulation with the Monte Carlo method, between 1 - 65,000 iterations, integrated menu and toolbar, up to 150 inputs and 20 outputs, easy block of inputs in order to run partial simulations, definition of correlations between inputs, determination of one approximate distribution for a known data series, quick and easy install and uninstall. (more)	Apr 18, 2005
	Machain, Luciano	SimulAr Add-in for Microsoft Excel that is distributed as "emailware". SimulAr adds probability distribution functions in spreadsheets for performing Monte Carlo simulation and risk analysis under uncertainty conditions. Includes the possibility of correlating variables and fitting distributions to data. (more)	Mar 22, 2005
	DHHS, CFSAN, Food and Drug Administration/RTI	Cost of Reformulating Foods and Cosmetics Foods and cosmetics are examples of regulated products which are sometimes reformulated in response to changes in the marketplace or regulatory environment. RTI and the Economics Team at the FDA Center for Food Safety and Applied Nutrition (CFSAN) produced this model, based on the earlier labeling cost model, to help estimate the costs incurred in reformulation due to changes in regulations. The report provides information on the process of reformulation and a description of the underlying assumptions and calculations used in developing the model. Instructions for using the model are in Section 4 of the report. (more) Publication Month: July 2002	Mar 8, 2005
	Food Safety Risk Analysis Clearinghouse	FR-Analytica listserv Discussion forum to share ideas and experiences using Analytica software, especially as they apply to the areas of risk analysis. While the focus is food safety, risk analysts in other fields should not be discouraged as many problems encountered in risk analysis can cut across different subjects such as transportation, nuclear energy, environmental risks, etc. (more)	Jan 6, 2005
	Exponent, Inc.	Calendex™ Aggregate exposure modeling tool for chemical hazards.	Dec 9, 2004
	TreeAge Software, Inc.	TreeAge Software, Inc. Company that publishes TreeAge Pro software for decision analysis. The website includes information about their products, training, and more. (more)	Dec 8, 2004
	Middleton, Michael R.	Decision Modeling Add-Ins for Excel Information about the TreePlan Decision Tree, SensIt Sensitivity Analysis, and RiskSim Simulation add- ins for Excel.	Dec 7, 2004
	Council for Regulatory Environmental Modeling, Office of Research and Development, Environmental Protection Agency	Models Knowledge Base Database of EPA's environmental models. Models can be searched by keyword or browsed based on certain environmental indicators. Includes general information about the model, links to the model's homepage if available, user information, and information on the science behind the model. (more)	Nov 29, 2004
		Decision Analysis Software Survey Survey of vendors of decision analysis software packages. Includes information on operating systems, applications, user capabilities, pricing, constraints, graphical elicitation techniques, new features, targeted industries, applications, and vendor contact information. (more) Publication Month: October 2004	Nov 29, 2004
	Applied Biomathematics	RAMAS Risk Calc Tool for probability bounds analysis, fuzzy arithmetic, and interval analysis.	Nov 29, 2004
	RiskWorld, Tec-Com Inc.	Risk-Related Software Listing of software related to risk analysis.	Nov 22, 2004
	European Food Safety Authority	EFSA Scientific Report on the BSE Surveillance Model (BSurvE) Established by the Community Reference Laboratory for TSE Report that assesses the Community Reference Laboratory's BSE surveillance model BSurvE. Publication Date: Wednesday, October 27, 2004	Oct 29, 2004
	Lumina Decision Systems, Inc.	Analytica Quanitative modeling tool for working with decision models. Applications include risk analysis, decision analysis, cost/benefit assessment, policy analysis, and more. The software is commercial but a free trial is available for download from this site. (more)	Jun 29, 2004
	World Health Organization	WHO-CHOICE: CHOosing Interventions that are Cost Effective This page provides information on cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) in support of decision-making that affects health systems. Resources provided include a table of GBD regions for WHO member states, demographic information (including Generic Disease Model, Population, Deaths, and Reproduction Rates, and Health State Valuations), tools to support CEA, background papers, and more. Tools listed include PopMod, a population model that can incorporate two distinct disease conditions, CostIt, software for recording and analyzing cost data, and MCLeague, or Monte Carlo League, which provides stochastic league tables for uncertainty around costs and effects. The tools are either downloadable or available by request. (more)	Jul 25, 2003
	Institute of Food Research	MicroFit v1.0 Tool for obtaining microbiological growth parameters from challenge test data. You must register to download the software, but the download is free. (more)	Jul 14, 2003
	Microbiological and Chemical Exposure Assessment Research Division, National Exposure Research Laboratory, Office of Research and Development, Environmental Protection Agency	Dietary Exposure Potential Model Model and database system for estimating dietary exposure to chemical residues. Data is included from government-sponsored national food intake surveys and chemical residue monitoring programs. The user can add additional foods or chemicals and associated data, and the user can import food diaries for exposure analysis. There is also an option to include exposure from tap water. (more)	Jul 11, 2003
	Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture	Foodborne Illness Cost Calculator Tool for estimating the costs of illness for selected foodborne illnesses. Assumptions used in the estimate may be changed to reflect the desired scenario. ERS calculated costs are also given, and the assumptions used in calculating these costs may be examined. (more)	Jun 5, 2003
	Transgalactic Ltd.	Automation in Microbiology and Biosciences This CD includes "Research Express" software, which "Controls a microbiology reader Bioscreen C, draws growth curves and performs microbiological calculations in MS Excel." Application areas include food research, food QC, microbiological research, and many more. A link on this page offers the option of downloading the software instead. The software functions in a trial mode unless a hardware key has been purchased and installed. (more)	Mar 12, 2003
	DMST, OSAS, CFSAN, Food and Drug Administration/RTI	FDA Labeling Cost Model An update to RTI's 1990 labeling cost model to better meet the FDA's current needs in estimating labeling costs. The report, entitled "FDA Labeling Cost Model: Final Report," includes background information, discussion of the revised cost estimates used in the model, a description of the assumptions and calculations used, and instructions for using the model. The model and instructions are downloadable. Software requirements: Stata and Microsoft Excel. Acknowledgement: With special thanks to the Economics Team in FDA-CFSAN, Office of Scientific Analysis and Support, Division of Market Studies. (more) Publication Month: January 2003	Feb 20, 2003
	Zheng, Junyu, and H. Christopher Frey	AuvTool This software tool, developed for the Office of Research and Development, Environmental Protection Agency, is for use in quantifying variability and uncertainty in quantitative analysis. The tool was presented at the Society for Risk Analysis Annual Meeting in New Orleans, LA, in a workshop entitled "Bootstrap Simulation and Two- Dimensional Monte Carlo Simulation: Dealing with Variability and Uncertainty, Mixture Distributions, Measurement Error, and Censored Data." The software is available to download, as is a user's manual, technical documentation, workshop handouts and slides, and a paper entitled "Quantification of variability and uncertainty using mixture distributions: evaluation of sample size, mixing weights and separation between components". (more) Publication Month: February 2002	Jan 17, 2003
	Exponent, Inc.	FARE MicrobialTM Software program for conducting probabilistic microbial risk assessment. The program was developed by Exponent together with the Food and Drug Administration, and consists of a Contamination and Growth Module and an Exposure Module. Data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture's Continuing Survey of Food Intakes by Individuals (CSFII) 1994-96, 98 are included in the program. A users manual, containing both installation and use guidelines, is provided. (more) Publication Month: September 2002	Nov 4, 2002
	Risk Assessment Program, Toxicology and Risk Analysis Section, Life Sciences Division, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Department of Energy	Human Health Risk Exposure Model This tool uses exposure concentrations to calculate doses and risks. The equations for performing this analysis are also available for different exposure scenarios. Exposure through consumption of fish can be found in the RECREATIONAL LAND USE; Exposure to Contaminants in Water section, and exposure through the consumption of homegrown produce can be found in the RESIDENTIAL LAND USE; Exposure to Contaminants in Water section. (more)	Aug 30, 2002
	Bechtel Jacobs Company LLC	Empirical Models for the Uptake of Inorganic Chemicals from Soil by Plants This report presents models on the uptake of contaminants from the soil by plants. Most of the study data is based on agricultural crop plants. Contaminants studied include arsenic, cadmium, copper, lead, mercury, nickel, selenium, and zinc. (more) Publication Date: Wednesday, September 23, 1998	Aug 26, 2002
	Lockheed Martin Energy Research Corporation	Improved Methods for Calculating Concentrations Used in Exposure Assessments This document describes macros developed for use with SAS software that provide improved methods in estimating exposure concentrations of contaminants. (more) Publication Month: January 2000	Aug 26, 2002
	Office of Pesticide Programs, Environmental Protection Agency	Water Models Downloadable models that can be used to predict pesticide concentrations in ground and surface water. Models available are PRZM3, EXAMS II, FIRST, GENEEC2, and SCI-GROW. (more)	Aug 22, 2002
	Palisade Europe	@RISK 4.5 Tutorial This online tutorial provides an introduction to @RISK software, including getting started, running a risk analysis, graphing the results, advanced features, and a description of what's new in @RISK 4.5. (more) Publication Year: 2002	Jul 31, 2002
	Sielken and Associates Consulting, Inc.	GEN.T This GENeral Tool may be used to incorporate cancer dose-response extrapolation techniques into quantitative risk assessments. (more)	Jun 3, 2002
	Sielken and Associates Consulting, Inc.	DistGEN DISTribution GENerator. A tool for Monte Carlo simulation. Applications include exposure and dose analysis, as well as aggregate and cumulative risk characterization. (more)	Jun 3, 2002
	Fujitsu Services	Project Risk Management Software Directory Directory of risk management software packages. Publication Date: Wednesday, March 12, 2003	May 8, 2002
	Microbial Food Safety Research Unit, Eastern Regional Research Center, Agricultural Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture	Pathogen Modeling Program Tool for estimating the effects of multiple variables on the growth or survival of foodborne pathogens.	Aug 31, 2001
	Decisioneering	Decisioneering This organization provides risk analysis software and desktop decision intelligence software tools, including Crystal Ball. (more)	Aug 31, 2001
	Palisade Corporation	Palisade Palisade's decision analysis software includes the DecisionTools Suite: @RISK, TopRank, PrecisionTree, BestFit, and RISKview. Functions performed by these programs include risk analysis, Monte Carlo simulation, sensitivity analysis, creating decision trees and influence diagrams, fitting data to distributions, and solving optimization problems. (more)	Aug 31, 2001

Copyright © 2008 Joint Institute for Food Safety and Applied Nutrition.

0220 Symons Hall University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20740

• Phone: 301.405.1780
• Fax: 301.405.8390
• E-mail: foodrisk@umd.edu